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Crunching the (Marin) Numbers: The G-2022 Election Results

At the MarinGOP we're always focused on what happens next. Sure, we'd love to rest on our laurels and keep bragging about the Lincoln Dinner we had back in early 2020 with Congressman Devin Nunes. But, we have tickets for UPCOMING fundraisers to sell. (FYI: We fund our get-out-the-vote efforts mainly by raising money through fundraisers. We're not just going on a sunset cruise for the fun of it, we're good little political capitalists, we're going to make a profit and use that money to fund our grassroots efforts here in Marin.)

Nevertheless, taking a serious look at past election successes (and failures) can give us the information we need going forward. There are lessons to be learned if you are willing to do a deep dive and crunch the numbers. Luckily, the MarinGOP volunteer secretary has no personal life and did learn a thing or two about research and fact checking back in school. So, we took a hard look at the data about the G-2022 election here in Marin. And, there are some fascinating conclusions we can draw from that data.

Currently registered Republicans represent less than 14% of Marin voters. However, we typically take 18-22% of the vote. And, some of our candidates significantly outperform.

The facts are fairly simple. In the G-2022 election 15,224 Marin Republicans turned out to vote. (This is inline with the over-all Marin voter turnout of roughly 72% in the G-2022.) Every single top of the ticket Republican candidate got thousands of votes from voters who are NOT registered Republicans. (Democrat candidates ALSO got votes from voters who are NOT registered Democrats. For all intents and purposes, Marin is not a Blue vs. Red county, we are a Blue/Purple/Red county. Tens of thousands of Marin voters do NOT belong to either the Democrat or Republican parties. Many "no party preference" voters actually do display a strong preference for one party or the other, but there are obviously ALSO thousands of "split ticket" voters who will vote for some Democrats and some Republicans.)

1) The vast majority of Republican candidates on the ballot in Marin in 2022 significantly outperformed. In other words, every single top-of-the-ticket Republican candidate --Governor, Lt. Gov., etc.-- on the ballot got at LEAST 6,000+ votes from Marin voters who are NOT registered Republicans.

2) Lanhee Chen outperformed the Republican base by at least 100%. Roughly 15,000 Marin Republicans cast a ballot in the G-2022. Lanhee Chen got over 30,000 votes in Marin which means he got over 15,000 votes from people who are NOT registered Republicans.

3) The data suggests that there are about 6,700 voters in Marin who are NOT registered Republicans who display a strong preference for Republican candidates. In other words, they seek out and vote for Republicans and probably vote the full Republican ticket.

4) There are an additional two thousand to nine thousand non Republican voters who are willing to split-ticket vote and vote for at least one Republican candidate.

So how do we capitalize on this data? We didn't just compile data and put together a few bar charts for decorative purposes. Ideally, we have a plan to grow the base and help our candidates in future elections. These charts were developed to try and figure out how to use our often limited resources --we always need more volunteers and more money-- to do outreach in the third bluest county in California.

But, if we raise more money we do have a staggered 19 page plan to up our outreach efforts. We know exactly what we can do with $388.00 or $3,200.00 or $9,200.00.

Our March "Meet the Party of Lincoln" outreach plan was successful enough that it caught the attention of the usual nattering nabobs of "Liberalism" who went a little bats writing letters to the editor of the MarinIJ complaining about us. (It also helped grow our mailing list. And, it cost less than $400.00)

It is tempting to just hang out in conservative "safe spaces" talking only to fellow travelers. But, the MarinGOP is committed to outreach and we have good news, outreach is working. People who have never attended a MarinGOP fundraiser before have bought tickets for our June cruise.

If you have any questions about any of our data sources, feel free to ask. (FYI: The Secretary is going to a rodeo this weekend so may not bother answering emails until next week.) We double-check our sources, and we are always honest about both the good and bad news. At the MarinGOP we're about facts and figures, not narratives and nonsense.

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Frank Drouillard
Frank Drouillard
27 may 2023

%Votes captured by DEMs exceeds %DEM registrations by a significant margin. An analysis indicates that an overwhelming %Votes by All Others (non-DEM and non-REP) fills the gap. (On the order of 75% of All Other.) As a result, one needs to compare the overperformance of winning DEM candidates with the overperformance of the losing REP candidates to know if we're really gaining on DEMs. It would be interesting to see those numbers from the November 2022 general election if you have them.

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Frank Drouillard
Frank Drouillard
28 may 2023
Contestando a

Using 106,464 reg'd DEMs and 20,780 reg'd REPs (from May 5, 2023) and a turnout of 71.19% (from November 8, 2023) we see the overperformance by the DEM and REP candidate for the top 6 REP vote captures as follows:

Office DEM REP

Controller 9,319 15,979

Treasurer 14,445 8,866

AG 15,937 12,778

BoE 13,357 13,191

Insur. Comm. 14,836 13,778

SoS 17,199 14,271

Although Lanhee Chen secured a greater number of votes above the expected vote based on turnout and %REP registrations, the number of "overperformance votes" by the other top 6 REP candidates fell short of the "overperformance votes" by DEMs.

Even when we have "kick*ss" results, their "kick*ass" results are better. It seems we always capture enough votes to lose. See: Note that for all the statewide partisan races, DEMs capture roughly 80%…

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