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  • S. Nagle : The Millennial Republican

Election Watch Tips: What to Watch & How to Sound Smart at Parties

Updated: Oct 31



Unlike a lot of Republicans I’m pretty comfortable reading non partisan news… Because I want the data. Forget the packaging, just look for the data.


Sadly it is hard to find good data these days. Maybe it was always hard to find good data. The vast majority of the “polls” were WRONG in 2016. Which is one of the many reasons why we have elections instead of just polls.


A lot of people are utterly addicted to polling data. I’m ambivalent about polls. The person I trust the most to have a handle on politics once told me, “Don’t waste money on polls!” Well… I don’t waste money on polls. (I'm the unpaid blogger for the MarinGOP, do I look like I have a polling budget? Good grief, I pay my own bridge tolls.) But other people do have budgets for polls so I rely on their data… But… if it isn’t worth spending money on maybe it isn’t worth anything?

Regardless, this is what I’ll be paying attention to on Tuesday.


1. The SWING STATES…. Yep… Some states matter more than others. I live in California and I am voting. But I don’t think California is in play. So I’m watching the swing states… I wrote a blog post about this a couple of weeks ago. I’m not going to repeat it… If you are interested read this or watch the video… And if I'm right, well... remember you heard it from me first!!!!


2. Hatboro, PA... I know… insane… But Hatboro is my personal bellwether town for eastern Pennsylvania. So… I track Hatboro, PA. Pennsylvania is a swing state. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh don’t really matter. But the small townships on the fringes of the burbs matter a LOT. Privileged housewives in Bryn Mawr may totally LOVE rioting… But Hatboro’s female business owners don’t and THEY are watching Philly burn. So I’m watching Hatboro.


3. 270 To Win: I LOVE THIS WEBSITE… Loads of Conservatives hate this website. I love the interactive maps. It is very user friendly. And you can dig deep and go by county instead of national. Spend 35 minutes playing around and then toddle off and sound smart at parties. (I don't get invited to super cool parties, but I am the person other people call an hour before they head off to a party because they want to pick my brains so they can SOUND ALL SMART AND INFORMED at a cool party. Canadians call me up to pick my brains on American politics. Because... Back in December of 2015 when the London bookies were saying the odds on Donald Trump winning were 1,600 to 1 I figured the odds should be 8 to 1. I'm a U.S. citizen, it isn't legal for me to bet on American races. So I didn't put ten quid on the Donald, but I advised a foreign friend to put a bill on the Donald. She didn't want to waste the money... Oh well... Who needs a sable coat, right?)


4. The Senate…. 270 To Win has a really good section on Senate races. I start in the East and work my way West. This year I’m looking at Maine (there is a good chance Senator Susan Collins will not win re-election, the Democrats started gunning for her in 2018 and raised a warchest before they even had a candidate), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his life, but he ushered Amy Coney Barrett through the confirmation process and that may earn him the fence-sitting Conservative vote), Michigan (the smart money says the Democratic incumbent has it in the bag, but the Democratic candidate has the charisma of an old sock and the Republican upstart is campaigning hard so watch Republican John James… if he wins he’s going to run for President in the next 12 years), Iowa always matters (Joni Ernst may not pull the election out… I’ve always found her a great campaigner, but she is a touch too much of a globalist for the Republican base these days… and there are some local issues involving chicken processing and pigs that may get her in trouble), Colorado (I don’t think a Republican can win in Colorado… legal pot basically IS the Colorado issue and the Democrat is basically Mr. Legal Pot), and Arizona (in the aftermath of John McCain’s death the Arizona state GOP sort of descended into petty backbiting and mindless fights so you have candidates almost as far to the left as Kamala Harris winning in Arizona almost by default… But Martha McSally is a Republican rising star and she may win her race even as Senator Collins in Maine loses hers).


5. Congress. I watch some Congressional races just because I have a feel for certain areas. But every Congressional election is unique. And it is HARD to keep up on 500+ individual races. The one to watch in California is CA-49. Brian Maryott has a chance. So… he is the name I am watching in California. (I think Devin Nunes is going to get re-elected so I’m not paying too much attention to his race.) But Ca-49 may be the interesting race in California…. If you want a darkhorse candidate to watch in New York State pay attention to Nicole Maliotakis. As far as I am concerned she is the ANTI AOC. And she is amazing. The district she cut her teeth in was a blue collar generational Democratic stronghold. But the Democratic Party figured it could go "New Left" and hang on to the old line blue-collar Irish vote. Guess what? I used to be a Democrat. So did a lot of people in Nicole Maliotakis' home district. Watch Nicole Maliotakis. If Republicans have a shot of getting a Republican elected Governor of New York again the candidate with legs is Nicole Maliotakis. She's going after a Congressional seat now... But I think she should be a player in New York state politics.


So... this is what I will be watching Tuesday. And yes, I'm not joking... I called the 2016 election back in December of 2015. And at least one Canadian did call me up this month to yell at me about American politics. (Which I find a little embarrassing... because I genuinely do NOT CARE ENOUGH ABOUT CANADIAN POLITICS TO EVEN HAVE AN OPINION ON WHAT OUR NEIGHBORS UP NORTH ARE UP TO.) I have pretty good instincts sometimes. So have fun... sound smart, don't eat any questionable dip off the buffet tables. Oh yeah... and if you are a U.S. citizen please vote!!!!!!!!

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