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  • S. Nagle : The Millennial Republican

Path to Victory: How Trump Wins

Updated: Oct 4


Guess what... Trump's next four years are not dependent on Marin County. (Thank you Lord.) If, like me, you spend a lot of time in the bubble of Marin surrounded by the Left you are told every day that Trump has no path to victory. (Or he does... but it involves Macedonian computer hackers.) Considering that Big Tech was pretty much all on board with Hillary Clinton a couple of years ago and are now all on board with whatever candidate they are running now as they dream of a Harris administration.... I don't give much credence to internet rumors.


Something someone heard on Twitter? Hello? Really?


This election isn't about Twitter. This is about people. This is also about the map. This is the map I am looking at right now.


I prefer maps to twitter. Maps can tell you a lot about America, and about the American people.... Because this election comes down to people. Local issues and personalities. On the one hand we have Joe Biden who is drawing crowds in the low dozens (and I do mean LOW dozens)... on the other hand we have Donald Trump who can even draw a crowd to a Biden event to try and photobomb a campaign stop. (And yes... I know there are at least five people who think that is soooo tacky and not the way they would run a campaign. Hey, Monday Morning quarterbacks, get out there on the field and show us how you would do it... This is October, this election is on... you can complain in December.)


In the next 30 days these are the places that matter. It is cool there was a pro Trump flag wave in San Francisco on 19th Ave. (The 19th Avenue flag wave event was about half a mile long and got close to zilch coverage in the press, because you know journalists, if they refuse to cover a story it isn't really a story right?) And it is great we had a walkaway and sailaway event back in August. We really DO need every vote and then some, and I don't care if California stays blue, I want every red vote to be counted too!


But these are the states that matter in the home stretch.


1) Pennsylvania: I've never lived in Pennsylvania. But I spent a sliver of my childhood in rural New York State right on the other side of the Delaware River not too far from Pennsylvania. Rural New York State and rural Pennsylvania have a lot in common. The rural part of the state has a lot of trees, a lot of small farms and a whole lot of deer hunters. (And guys who fish.) Pennsylvania also has a whole lot of industry that got hit hard in the last fifty years as the kind of corporations Joe Biden has spent his political career being lobbied by exported jobs. Biden spends a lot of time talking about Scranton, but he hasn't lived there in more than half a century. And I don't think the people of Scranton want to vote away the remnants of their industry in order to further enrich Hunter Biden. Pennsylvania isn't Philadelphia. Philadelphia isn't the tail that wags the dog in Pennsylvania. And the Lehigh Valley will decide Pennsylvania. So... newsflash to Marin Conservatives, cross-over-Democrats in a part of Pennsylvania known as the "Irish Valley" got Donald Trump elected in 2016. I'm hoping they will deliver in 2020. Because President Trump has done more than any president in my lifetime to stop the bleed and try and save American manufacturing jobs. Basically.... Joe Biden appeals to ex Republicans who are "media consultants and PR Professionals"... Donald Trump appeals to ex Democrats whose relatives worked in the steel plants and the coal mines. If you live in Marin you probably know more media consultants than steel workers but newsflash... There are a lot more pick-up truck drivers out there than there are Kentfield househusbands who do PR on the side.


2) Wisconsin: Milwaukee and Kenosha? Back in April I actually assumed there would be riots in Milwaukee this year... but I figured it would be the normal stuff. Outraged Bernie Bros storming the Democratic Convention (which was supposed to be held in Milwaukee this year). Well... The DNC went virtual this year and riots went national. What is weirder is that Kenosha had a violent riot. I've been to Kenosha. Stuff like that REALLY isn't supposed to happen in a place like Kenosha. There used to be a GM plant there, they built the Hornet. Kenosha can't afford 50 million dollars worth of damage. (And people in Wisconsin KNOW this wasn't a spontaneous "local" thing... probably people driving up from Chicago.) Illinois will vote for Biden. Chicago is the tail that wags the political dog in Illinois, but cross the line into Wisconsin and people are NOT happy about this. If you are a leftwing housewife with three ex husbands, two nannies and three maids in Ross "arson for equity" probably makes sense to you.... (Because it doesn't happen in your neighborhood.) If you are a dope smoking tech hanger-on who lives with three roommates in a two bedroom unit in Oakland Molotov cocktails sound like fun.... Torching something? Heck, entertainment has been thin on the ground this year. Coachella was cancelled, so was Burning Man. But if you are an average working couple with a mortgage and a dog and maybe a couple of kids... What happened in Kenosha was NOT fun. You put the kids in the basement and prayed you wouldn't burn to death in your own home because a bunch of people you don't know decided to re-enact the Purge movies in your town.


3) Minnesota: Minnesota is traditionally the peaceable kingdom. Also traditionally liberal. Not liberal in the I-was-in-an-ashram-and-down-with-the-movement-in-the-60s kind of way that a lot of people in San Francisco are "liberal." Minnesota is an old fashioned liberal bastion where most people believe in fairness and equality... you know, all that stuff the New Left doesn't believe in anymore? Minnesota is blue on the map.... but I think Minnesota can flip. Back in 2008 Barack Obama carried Minnesota by roughly 10 points. Which is a solid win... A lot more solid than Ted Cruz's last win. In 2016 Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota, but she only managed a win by running up numbers in just a few counties. (For the record, Minnesota is NOT a low population state.) Something really interesting happened in Minnesota between 2008 and 2016.... The Democratic-Farmer-Labor coalition (Minnesota doesn't have the same parties the rest of us do) basically LOST all the farmers. There really isn't much of a rural Democratic vote left in Minnesota anymore. Barack Obama's policies, specifically the ACA, hurt middle class small business people and farmers too much. You know how he said there would be winners and losers? Well, rural middle class people in Minnesota were the losers and the Democratic Party has been losing their votes ever since. Minnesota is blue on the map... but I don't think people in Minnesota like the direction the New Left wants to take America. And something interesting may happen in Minnesota next month.


4) Florida: I have a good feeling about Florida.... Which is rare. Florida is almost always a toss up state. Florida is also a tough state to figure out demographically... You have a lot of retirees out of New York and the upper midwest. You have a lot of college age people who want the sand and the surf and the perpetual pool-side bar vibe. You have a very diverse latino population. You have a huge Cubano population. (A growing Puerto Rican population.) A French language Hatian-American press. This is a state where communism and anti-communism aren't just classroom style theoretical debates for a lot of people. Read this article... Religious freedom and the American dream are at the heart of the "Latinos for Trump" car caravan. This is also a state where a lot of people inherently and instinctively follow the news from other places. You could be retired in Florida for twenty years but you could still be reading the Canton, Ohio newspaper. Ditto for New York. Israel is also always a hot topic around Boca. And the senior population of Florida, particularly the ex-New Yorker senior population of Florida are probably reading stories like this piece in the New York Post. If you are a senior citizen Democratic politicians offer lip service to your health and well being, but the bodies of Seniors who died in nursing homes in New York were stacked up like cordwood. Florida --where there are a LOT of retirees-- didn't have anywhere near that many deaths. People died in New York, the New York economy is in the process of being murdered and the political class? Well, if you actually are a REAL New Yorker and not a third rate ex ballet dancer Clintonista staffer who virtue signals "New York Cred" you know just how painful this could get. It could get like the '70s again.


5) Michigan: The Iron Range doesn't get scared of a little crude language. The Iron Range is scared of hordes of non reality based government bureaucrats who would happily sell out the North Country just to cozy up to a chablis swigging Canadian with the UN. And quite frankly... I don't think Gretchen Whitmer is nearly as popular as Rachel Maddow thinks she is.... Newsflash Governor, after you tried to keep people from putting their boats in the water and gardening because of Covid-19.... Well... you showed people what the nanny state really looks like. And I don't think they actually liked it much. The protests AGAINST Whitmer's stay-at-home order suggest they REALLY didn't like it.


6) Texas.... Oh yeah... we really need to hold the line in Texas. I'm not really worried about Texas this year, but unless we put some backbone into it Austin could be the next Marin.





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